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Order Blocks and Fair-Value Gaps

This is the one strategy in the set built on an inference about who was trading rather than on a measurement of what price did. Order blocks and fair-value gaps are read as footprints left by large participants, and the strategy positions where those participants are presumed to act again.

The definitions are precise, which is worth acknowledging before examining the inference — the patterns are mechanically identifiable even where the story attached to them is not verifiable.

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Two Precisely Defined Patterns

A bullish order block is the last down candle before a strong upward move. The reasoning offered is that a large buyer absorbing supply at that price is what allowed the advance to begin, so the zone marks where meaningful buying occurred.

A fair-value gap is a price range that was traversed so quickly that little transacted inside it — a three-candle pattern where the middle candle's range is not overlapped by its neighbours. Because so little business was done there, the argument goes, price tends to return and fill it in.

Both are unambiguous to identify. Given a price series, any two implementations should agree on where the order blocks and gaps are; this is not a case of parameter-dependent pattern reading.

The strategy buys a retrace back into the block or the gap, targets the prior high, and stops below the block. The premise is that the zone functions as support because it is where large orders were absorbed — so price returning there meets the same buying that created the move.

Markets That Respect the Footprints

The stated condition is a market that respects institutional footprints — one where these zones do act as support when revisited. That framing is worth noticing, because it makes the condition circular: the strategy works in markets where it works.

A more testable version: it needs markets where sharp moves are followed by partial retracements that stall around the origin of the move. That does describe real behaviour, and it does not require any claim about who is transacting. Price frequently retraces to the base of an impulse and continues, and the pattern is identifiable whether or not the explanation is right.

What it needs and cannot verify is that the zone contains resting interest now. The block marks where absorption happened once. Whether anything remains there is unobservable from price history — the orders that produced the move were, by definition, consumed by it.

The Cheapest Entry in the Set

Both zones are identifiable in advance and price has to come back to them, so entry rests. No chasing, no crossing, maker fee on the way in. This is the most cost-efficient entry of any strategy here.

The stop is defined by structure rather than by a fee calculation — just below the block — which means its distance varies with the pattern. A tight block gives a near stop, a wide one a distant stop, and the strategy takes whatever the structure supplies rather than sizing to a fixed risk.

The target is also structural: the prior high. So both target and stop come from chart geometry, and the ratio between them is whatever the pattern happens to produce. Some setups offer a good ratio and some do not, and the strategy has no natural filter for that unless one is added.

The Story Is Not Testable

The central problem is that the explanatory claim cannot be checked. Nothing in a price series identifies who transacted or how large they were. A down candle before an advance is consistent with a large buyer absorbing supply, and equally consistent with sellers exhausting themselves, or with a small market moving on thin volume. The pattern is real; the attribution is a narrative laid over it.

That matters because the narrative is what justifies the entry. If the zone is support because large resting orders remain there, a revisit meets real buying. If it is simply where a move happened to start, a revisit meets a level with no special property. The strategy behaves identically either way and the two cases have different expected outcomes.

There is also a selection problem in how these patterns get evaluated. Blocks that held are memorable and are shown as examples; blocks that price cut straight through are unremarkable and get described as invalidated or as lower-quality setups after the fact. Any pattern assessed that way looks reliable.

The mechanical failure is straightforward: price returns to the block and continues through it. The stop is hit, and because the stop is placed at a structurally obvious level, it sits where many others are placed — which is precisely the cluster the liquidity sweep strategy in this same collection is built to trade against. Two strategies here are on opposite sides of that event.

Order blocks and fair-value gaps are precisely defined and genuinely repeatable as patterns. The reasoning attached to them — that they mark where large orders rest — is untestable from price alone, and the strategy's edge depends on which of those two things is doing the work.

Sources

Note: This explains how a process works. It is not legal advice, it is not specific to any debt, and it is not a substitute for a licensed attorney in your state. Rules and time limits vary by state and change over time — check the cited sources.

6 desks. The mechanics, not signals.

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